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The Ultimate Paradox Rift Pull Rate Guide: Are The 'Nerfed' Odds Worth Chasing The Top 10 SIRs?

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The Scarlet & Violet—Paradox Rift set remains one of the most polarizing Pokémon TCG expansions in recent memory, primarily due to its notoriously 'nerfed' pull rates for the most coveted cards. As of December 19, 2025, collectors are still grappling with the significantly tougher odds for securing a Special Illustration Rare (SIR) or a Hyper Rare (Gold), making the hunt for chase cards like the Roaring Moon ex SIR a true test of patience and budget.

This deep dive provides the most current, data-driven analysis of the Paradox Rift pull rates, breaking down the exact odds for every rarity tier. Understanding these statistics is crucial for anyone planning to open a booster box, Elite Trainer Box, or individual packs, as the odds in this set represent a noticeable tightening compared to earlier *Scarlet & Violet* releases.

Paradox Rift Pull Rates: The Complete Odds Chart (December 2025)

The most important takeaway from the *Paradox Rift* set is the dramatic shift in the odds for the highest-value cards. Based on extensive community pack opening data, the probability of pulling a Special Illustration Rare (SIR) or a Hyper Rare (Gold) card is significantly lower than in sets like *Paldea Evolved* or the *Scarlet & Violet* base set.

The table below summarizes the estimated pull rates for the most sought-after rarities in a standard 36-pack booster box (with 9 cards per pack):

Rarity Odds Breakdown Per Pack and Per Booster Box

Rarity Tier Odds Per Pack (Approx.) Percentage Chance Expected Cards Per Booster Box (36 Packs)
Special Illustration Rare (SIR) 1 in 47 packs 2.1% ~0.76 cards
Hyper Rare (Gold/Secret) 1 in 82 packs 1.2% ~0.44 cards
Illustration Rare (IR) 1 in 13 packs 7.7% ~2.8 cards
Ultra Rare (UR) 1 in 15 packs 6.6% ~2.4 cards
Double Rare (ex) 1 in 6 packs 15.6% ~6.0 cards

The sheer difficulty of pulling a Special Illustration Rare (SIR) is the most discussed aspect of the set. At an average of 1 in 47 packs, many collectors will open an entire 36-pack booster box and still miss out on an SIR card.

The SIR 'Nerf': Why Paradox Rift is a Tougher Pull

The term "nerfed pull rates" became synonymous with *Paradox Rift* shortly after its release. This is due to the fact that the odds for Special Illustration Rares were noticeably worse than in the preceding *Scarlet & Violet* sets.

In the *Scarlet & Violet* base set and *Paldea Evolved*, the odds of pulling an SIR were closer to 1 in 32 packs. *Paradox Rift* tightened this to 1 in 47 packs, representing a significant 32% decrease in your chances of finding one of the biggest chase cards.

This change has had a direct impact on the secondary market. While it makes the set more frustrating to open, it also ensures that the most valuable cards, particularly the high-demand Pokémon and Trainer SIRs, maintain a high market value over time, providing strong long-term investment potential for sealed *Paradox Rift* booster boxes.

Illustration Rares (IR) and Ultra Rares (UR): The Consolation Prizes

While the SIR odds are brutal, the pull rates for Illustration Rares (IR) and Ultra Rares (UR) are quite favorable. You can expect to pull an Illustration Rare, such as the stunning Groudon IR or Plusle IR, in approximately 1 out of every 13 packs.

Ultra Rares (UR), which include full-art Pokémon ex and Trainer cards, appear slightly less often at about 1 in 15 packs. This means an average booster box will yield around five to six total IR and UR cards, offering a decent number of hits even if you miss the big SIR.

Top 5 Paradox Rift Chase Cards & Their Rarity

The difficulty of the pull rates is directly tied to the value of the set's biggest hits. The *Paradox Rift* set introduced the powerful Ancient and Future Pokémon, which dominate the list of most desirable cards. The following are the top 5 most valuable and sought-after cards in the set as of late 2025, all of which are Special Illustration Rares (SIR) or Illustration Rares (IR).

  1. Roaring Moon ex (SIR #251/182): The undisputed top chase card. Its stunning full-art design and competitive playability make its low 1-in-47 pull rate a major challenge for collectors.
  2. Iron Valiant ex (SIR #249/182): The Future Paradox counterpart to Roaring Moon, this SIR features incredible, detailed artwork and is a major card in the metagame.
  3. Garchomp ex (SIR #260/182): A fan-favorite Pokémon, the Garchomp ex Special Illustration Rare is one of the most visually appealing cards in the entire *Scarlet & Violet* era.
  4. Tulip (SIR #259/182): Trainer SIRs are always highly collectible, and Tulip’s full-art card is one of the most valuable in the set, alongside Professor Sada's Vitality SIR.
  5. Groudon (IR #199/182): As one of the most popular Legendary Pokémon, the Illustration Rare Groudon is a stunning hit that is much easier to pull than an SIR (1 in 13 packs) but still commands a high price.

Other highly valuable entities and LSI keywords to look out for include the Altaria ex SIR, Iron Hands ex (Ultra Rare), Minun IR, Steelix IR, and the Mela SIR. These cards collectively define the collector's experience of opening *Paradox Rift* packs.

Strategy: Maximizing Your Paradox Rift Booster Box Odds

Given the challenging pull rates, especially for the Special Illustration Rares, a strategic approach is essential for collectors. Opening a full Paradox Rift booster box (36 packs) is the most cost-effective way to guarantee a high number of hits and maximize your odds of landing an SIR.

  • The SIR Guarantee is Gone: Unlike some earlier sets, there is no guaranteed SIR or Hyper Rare per booster box. The average box will contain 5-6 total Ultra Rares and Illustration Rares, but only a ~76% chance of a single SIR.
  • Focus on Illustration Rares: If you are a collector who values beautiful artwork over pure rarity, focusing on the Illustration Rares (IR) like Plusle, Morpeko, or Brute Bonnet is a more realistic goal, as you are expected to pull nearly three per box.
  • Bulk vs. Singles: For those strictly chasing the Roaring Moon ex SIR or Iron Valiant ex SIR, the most efficient strategy remains buying the single card on the secondary market rather than gambling on the tough 1-in-47 pack odds.

In conclusion, the *Paradox Rift* set stands out for its incredible artwork and competitive card selection, but the tight odds for the highest rarities make it a high-risk, high-reward proposition. Approach your pack openings with realistic expectations, and enjoy the beautiful Illustration Rares that you are more likely to encounter.

The Ultimate Paradox Rift Pull Rate Guide: Are the 'Nerfed' Odds Worth Chasing the Top 10 SIRs?
paradox rift pull rates
paradox rift pull rates

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