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5 Critical Reasons Why Amarillo, Texas Still Doesn't Have A Costco (2025 Update)

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The question of whether a Costco Wholesale warehouse is finally coming to Amarillo, Texas, remains one of the most persistent and highly debated topics in the Texas Panhandle's retail landscape. As of late 2025, despite continuous local chatter and a strong public desire, there has been no official announcement, groundbreaking, or confirmed opening date from Costco corporate regarding a new location in the city. The reality is that Amarillo's market presents a unique set of challenges and opportunities that must align with Costco’s stringent site selection criteria before the retail giant commits to the area.

This in-depth analysis dives into the specific economic, demographic, and competitive factors—including the city's current growth and the entrenched presence of its main competitor, Sam's Club—that are currently influencing Costco's decision-making process. Understanding these elements is key to determining if and when Amarillo residents can expect to see a membership card for the beloved warehouse club in their wallets.

The Current Status: Is a Costco Coming to Amarillo in 2025?

The short answer, based on the most current data, is no official plans exist for a Costco in Amarillo, Texas, as of late 2025.

While local news and social media discussions frequently buzz with rumors, the official "New Locations Coming Soon" page on the Costco Wholesale website does not list Amarillo.

The city's desire for a Costco is palpable, driven by the retailer's reputation for premium goods, its popular private label, Kirkland Signature, and its famous food court items like the $1.50 hot dog and soda combo. However, wishful thinking does not constitute a development deal.

The fact is that Amarillo is already a fiercely competitive market, which is a major hurdle for any new warehouse club considering entry. The presence of two well-established Sam's Club locations—Walmart's warehouse arm—means Costco would have to enter a saturated market and aggressively compete for existing membership dollars.

Amarillo's Demographic and Economic Profile (A Costco Check-Up)

Costco uses a highly specific, proprietary formula to select new locations, and Amarillo's current profile offers a mixed bag of pros and cons:

  • Population: The estimated population for Amarillo city as of July 1, 2024, is approximately 203,729. The wider metropolitan area is larger, but the city proper is the core consideration.
  • Population Growth: The city saw modest growth between 2022 and 2023, with the population increasing by around 0.292% to 0.345%. While positive, this rate may not be aggressive enough to trigger an immediate expansion decision.
  • Median Household Income (MHI): Amarillo's median household income was approximately $62,469 (in 2023 dollars, covering the 2019-2023 period). This figure is a critical metric, as Costco typically targets areas with higher-than-average MHI to ensure a customer base that can afford its bulk, premium-focused inventory.
  • Target Audience: Costco's ideal member is often described as college-educated, living in a 2-person-plus household, and seeking higher-quality, premium products. The city's MHI is a strong indicator, but the overall economic density and proximity to other major Texas markets (like Lubbock, which also has a strong retail presence) factor heavily into the final decision.

5 Critical Factors Blocking a Costco in Amarillo (The Site Selection Formula)

For a retail giant like Costco to invest tens of millions of dollars into a new warehouse, five non-negotiable criteria must be met. Amarillo currently struggles to meet several of these, which explains the delay.

1. The Two-Sam's Club Saturation Point

The single biggest hurdle is the entrenched competition. Amarillo already supports two Sam's Club locations, indicating that the existing warehouse club demand is largely being met by Walmart's subsidiary.

Costco and Sam's Club are direct competitors in the "warehouse club retail" space. While Sam's Club is often seen as the more affordable option with a focus on name-brand items, Costco emphasizes its premium private-label brand, Kirkland Signature.

For Costco to open a store, it must be confident that it can steal a significant portion of Sam's Club’s membership or draw a large enough customer base from the surrounding Texas Panhandle region to justify the investment. This is a high-stakes market analysis.

2. The Need for Massive, Strategic Real Estate

Costco's real estate requirements are immense. A typical warehouse needs to accommodate a building of approximately 160,000 square feet, along with a vast parking lot requiring 300 to 350 spaces.

This requires a large, often undeveloped, tract of land in a location with excellent traffic flow and high visibility. The land must be easily accessible from major highways and arterial roads.

While areas like South Soncy Road (FM 2590) and the burgeoning Village at Four Corners development near Canyon are prime candidates for large-scale retail, securing the right parcel that meets Costco's exact specifications is a complex and lengthy process involving land acquisition and zoning approvals.

3. The 'Midland Effect' and Regional Density

When Costco expands in Texas, it often prioritizes markets that show explosive growth or serve as a major regional hub without direct competition nearby.

A recent example is the opening of a massive new Costco in Midland, Texas, which was approved to be one of the largest in the state and was seen as a major catalyst for development in West Texas.

Amarillo needs to demonstrate a similar regional draw and economic density that extends beyond Potter and Randall Counties to convince the company that a store would pull shoppers from hundreds of miles away, much like the upcoming Buc-ee's is expected to do.

4. The Demographic Sweet Spot

As noted, Costco targets a specific demographic. While Amarillo's MHI is respectable, the retailer needs a high concentration of households that fit their ideal profile within a tight radius—usually within a 10- to 15-minute drive of the proposed site.

The decision hinges on whether the density of college-educated, higher-income households in the primary trade area is sufficient to support the high volume of sales required to make a massive warehouse profitable. This analysis goes far deeper than simple city-wide census data.

5. Infrastructure and Development Readiness

Any site for a project of this scale requires significant infrastructure upgrades, including new roads, utility extensions, and traffic management solutions.

The rapid growth along South Soncy Road and the Four Corners area—which is seeing new developments like the arrival of a Marshalls store and other retail/dining spaces—shows the city is investing in infrastructure.

However, a Costco deal is often contingent on the city or county providing incentives or committing to specific infrastructure improvements. The complexity and cost of these necessary upgrades can often delay or derail a project, as development agreements are notoriously difficult to finalize.

The Retail War: How Sam's Club and New Development Affect the Decision

The competition between Costco and Sam's Club is a classic retail rivalry. In Amarillo, the two existing Sam's Clubs are a massive barrier to entry.

Historically, when one warehouse club opens a second location in a market, it is often a strategic move intended to block the entry of the other. Sam's Club’s second Amarillo location likely served this purpose, making the cost of entry for Costco significantly higher.

Furthermore, the Amarillo retail landscape is changing rapidly. New developments and businesses, including the highly anticipated Buc-ee's, new restaurants, and other retail shops, are primarily focusing on the South Soncy Road and Four Corners corridor.

This growth is a double-edged sword for Costco:

  • Pro: It proves the area is a high-growth, high-demand retail hub with the necessary land available.
  • Con: It increases land prices and competition for the best sites, potentially making the initial investment too high for Costco’s preferred models.

The arrival of a Costco would not just be a convenience for shoppers; it would be a major economic development win. It would create hundreds of new jobs, inject significant sales tax revenue into the city, and draw shoppers from a massive multi-state radius, including parts of Oklahoma and New Mexico, solidifying Amarillo’s status as the Panhandle’s premier shopping destination.

The Final Outlook: When Can Amarillo Expect a Costco?

While there is no official opening date for a Costco in Amarillo, Texas, the city's continuous population growth, rising median household income, and aggressive retail development along corridors like South Soncy Road and FM 2590 keep it on the retailer’s radar.

The key to unlocking a Costco deal lies in one of two scenarios:

  1. A Major Land Deal: A large, strategically located tract of land, ideally off a major interstate or highway, becomes available at a price and with zoning that is irresistible to Costco's real estate team.
  2. Regional Economic Surge: The Texas Panhandle experiences a substantial economic boom that elevates the median household income and population density to a level that unequivocally justifies a third warehouse club in the market, despite the Sam’s Club competition.

Until one of these factors shifts significantly, Amarillo will remain in a holding pattern, with residents continuing to make the drive to other Texas cities for their fix of Kirkland Signature products.

5 Critical Reasons Why Amarillo, Texas Still Doesn't Have a Costco (2025 Update)
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costco in amarillo texas

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